🔔 Upset Alert
A heavy favorite isn’t always a safe favorite.
Review moneyline favorites priced at -200 or heavier in NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB and tennis. No NBA or MLB.
Checking the prediction archive…
- Locks
- 95%–100% favorite win estimate
- No Sweats
- 85%–less than 95%
- Parlay Pieces
- 75%–less than 85%
- Better to Avoid
- 60%–less than 75%
- Storm Chasers
- Less than 60%
Today’s favorite watch
The probability shown is the favorite’s chance to win, not the chance of an upset. Matchups with missing model evidence remain unclassified.
Market coverage · not forecasts
Fresh -200-or-heavier favorites from the connected feed, including matchups without an independent model estimate. These prices are not recommendations, do not imply a category, and do not count toward the track record. Feed coverage may be incomplete.
The track record
Favorite win rates by category and sport, plus calibration error. Pending, void and push outcomes are counted separately.
Prediction history & daily review
Methods, sources & what’s missing
A qualifying price is only a screen. A dated independent pregame projection, model version and supporting evidence are required to classify a favorite. Market-implied probabilities are not relabeled as independent model forecasts. Projections must use verified team/player identities, matchup context and availability appropriate to the sport.
Daily review measures outcomes and Brier scores against frozen forecasts and flags calibration gaps. Model changes require chronological holdout evaluation and a new version; yesterday’s result never changes yesterday’s probability.
Odds connection: The Odds API (free tier requires signup; tennis tournaments and sportsbook coverage vary). Independent matchup projections and verified final results are not yet connected. Missing coverage is disclosed rather than filled with guesses.