Prop Hunt
Find the opportunity hiding in the stat line.
NFL first. Hunt for repeatable volume, changing opportunities and favorable matchups—not just a tempting payout.
Checking the prediction archive…
Top value props
Ranked by projected likelihood, at -150 or longer odds. At most 3 picks for one game, 5 for two or three games, and 10 for four or more. Never filled just to reach a quota.
“Safe” props · Consistency watchlist
Higher-consistency thresholds, including heavy juice. Only the strongest qualifying threshold per player and market is listed; easier alternatives retain their own likelihoods.
The track record
Book-specific results by list and rank. Win rate excludes pushes and voids; pending outcomes stay visible. A small sample is not proof of reliability.
Prediction history & daily review
Methods, sources & what’s missing
The baseline estimates a threshold’s hit probability from dated, current-season game observations with recency weighting and conservative smoothing. Verified pregame matchup and opportunity multipliers adjust those observations; unknown injuries or player identities block the pick instead of becoming guessed advantages.
Value requires a positive edge over the quoted implied probability. Consistency picks require at least eight current-season games, a 90% observed hit rate and a projected likelihood of at least 85%; these provisional thresholds cannot establish near-100% reliability.
Daily review scores frozen predictions, computes calibration error and proposes changes for review. It does not rewrite past picks or tune a model to yesterday’s winners. Licensed odds and verified identity, injury, matchup and settlement feeds must be connected before live predictions can appear.
Open NFL statistics connection: nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Odds adapter: The Odds API, signup required; coverage and free quota are limited.